The third wave of corona will be at its peak in October-November, a government committee scientist has warned.

New Delhi, Saturday 3 July 2021

Maninder Agarwal, a member of a government committee on modeling in the Covid 19 case, said that if the Corona guideline is not followed properly, the third wave could not be spread. Is. His predictions have three scenarios, optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.

He estimated that a third wave of corona virus could reach its peak between October and November, although only half the daily cases could be seen than the second wave, he said, adding that a third wave could spread if a new variant of corona virus is produced.

“We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic. In this, we assume that if no new mutants come, life will return to normal by August, the second is 'intermediate'. In this we believe that vaccination remains 20 percent less effective than optimistic scenario assumptions.

While more than 25 percent of infectious mutants are spread as the third scenario is frightening, a third wave could occur, the scientist said, adding that ‘in the case of a pessimistic scenario, the third wave could increase the case in the country from 150,000 to 200,000. However he also said that the faster the vaccination campaign proceeds, the less likely the third and fourth wave will be.

M Vidyasagar, a scientist at IIT-Hyderabad, who is also involved in the modeling of Kovid cases, said the number of hospital admissions could drop during the third wave. He cited the example of Britain, where more than 60,000 cases were reported in January, with 1,200 daily deaths. However, during the fourth wave, that number dropped to 21,000 and the death toll was only 14.