Corona virus to hit India hardest in November: ICMR

New delhi date. 15 June 2020, Monday

A new ICMR study on the corona virus has yielded alarming results. According to the study, due to the eight-week lockdown, the epidemic in India may now reach its peak by mid-November and there may be a shortage of ICU beds and ventilators at that time. However, the study also noted that the lockdown has given time to strengthen health facilities.

The study was conducted by researchers from the Operations Research Group formed by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). According to the study, the lockdown has extended the time it takes for the corona virus to reach its peak by about 34 to 76 days.

The lockdown has reduced transition cases by 69 to 97 percent and helped strengthen health infrastructure. After the lockdown, public facilities remained 60 per cent effective and demand for treatment facilities could be met by the first week of November.

Researchers now estimate that there could be a shortage of isolation wards for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months. However, the study found that coronavirus cases dropped by 83 percent due to lockdowns and public health facilities.

The effects of the epidemic can be mitigated as infrastructure grows and the pace of transition spreads across different regions. The virus could be brought under control if health facilities were increased to 80 per cent.

According to the model-based analysis, increasing testing in lockdowns, isolating patients and treating them to extremes can reduce corona cases by 70 percent and increasing infections by 27 percent.

In terms of mortality, the death toll due to the lockdown has dropped by 60 per cent. According to the researchers, disease management will involve proper review of policies and strengthening of health systems. It will take time for Corona to reach the peak due to the lockdown.

So that our health system has enough time to test, isolate, contact and treat patients. Until the corona vaccine is found, all of this will continue to be a major factor in reducing the impact of the epidemic in India.