The country needs 238 million doses of corona vaccine every month

- To achieve the goal of vaccinating all adults by December

- The question is how the government will achieve this Bhagirath target

New Delhi: To achieve the target of giving corona vaccine to every adult Indian by December 2021, a total of 1.2 billion corona vaccine doses have to be given in the country. Of this, 1.5 billion doses, or 5 per cent, are yet to be given. In other words, starting from June, the country has to give doses of 2 million corona vaccines every month.

If we understand the problem of corona vaccine in the terminology of cricket, then when the score is low in cricket, if the run rate is low at the beginning of the innings, then the run rate has to be increased as the innings progresses. If we slow down in the early months in terms of vaccines, it will become increasingly difficult to achieve the target at the end of the year.

As of May 31, 219 million corona vaccines had been administered in India. According to Co-Win Dashboard figures, India has so far delivered the fastest dose of 4.5 million doses a day.

150 million doses of corona vaccine will be made available for the month of June. This means that 3 million doses a day will be available for vaccination. Which is insufficient to achieve the goal. At this rate, the target is likely to be achieved by July 205. Thus we are currently starting the innings at a slower rate. Against the need of 3 million doses per month, India is likely to get only 150 million doses next month. This means that we will have to significantly increase rates to meet the target in July. Thus, from July, we have to be prepared to give not 5 but 5 million doses of corona vaccine.

Now the question is, as time goes on the situation becomes more and more heterogeneous, will we be able to achieve the goal? We had 2.3 million doses of corona vaccine in May, but now we have to increase it to 150 million doses in June. In other words, we have to increase the supply of vaccines by 21% in a single month.

Assuming that the country maintains this rate of vaccination, India will need 121 million doses in July, 3 million doses in August, 219 million doses in September and 3 million doses in October in the coming months. In addition, such a large number of vaccinations will require a huge administrative structure and a large number of staff for the vaccination program.

Statistical analysis shows that even if the supply of vaccines is increased to 5 million by August and it remains stable there, every adult Indian can be vaccinated against corona by December. In other words, the supply of corona vaccine needs to be increased by 21% per month at least until October to give everyone the corona vaccine by December.

The government said on June 1 that it would provide ten million doses daily in July and August. In other words, 200 million doses a month will be provided. No explanation has been given as to how this dose will be provided. Even if the government exaggerates, if the government provides half of that, that is, five million doses per day, every adult in the country can be vaccinated by April next year.

Thus, if the government wants to vaccinate every adult with the corona by December, the government will have to provide 2.15 million doses a day by August, which will have to be increased to 30.5 million doses a day by October. Thus, at present a difficult situation is prevailing against the government.